I can't tell you how often I've heard that MACRA payments can't be predicted. Hogwash! The rules are complex, and contain variables adjusted annually. But here is a nice table that can help with CMS-originated variables:
The sources for these CMS variables are either directly pulled from, or derived from the 2019 MIPS Final Rule, pages 59881 - 59887. You can download a version of that Final Rule where we have highlighted the relevant sections for your own research.
There is a second set of variables - more "principles" than variables regarding how MIPS scores in general will be effected by 2019 regulations. This second set implies that MIPS scores should be expected to go down a bit, when compared to 2017 and 2018, based on more stringent rules for PI and CQM scoring.
The work of financial projections always contains a level of uncertainty. But that does not mean we should not try.
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Our MACRA Monitor database tools already have access to your provider list, and their Medicare Payment history through public files, and we can easily incorporate these variables for you at no risk and no obligation. The only effort you need to exert is to look at the results.